One study states that there will be 8.8 billion people in 2100; 2 billion less than the UN projections for world population at the end of the century. China or Spain could lose half their population.
According to the latest UN report on world population, 9.7 billion people in 2050 and 10.9 billion in 2100 are expected to inhabit the Earth; compared to 7.7 billion at present. But a study published Wednesday in the scientific journal The Lancet; which predicts upheavals in the global balance and within societies; questions this continued growth throughout the 21st century.
“Good news for the environment”
According to researchers at the respected Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle, there will be a peak of 9.7 billion people around 2064, and then the world population will decline to 8.8 billion by 2100. This is 2 billion less than the UN projections. Much of this decline could be linked to the expansion of girls’ education and access to contraception. These two factors will bring the fertility rate down to 1.66 children per woman in 2100, compared to 2.37 today, according to the study.
This is “good news for the environment” because it means less pressure on food production systems and less CO2 emissions, said Christopher Murray, director of the IHME, which conducted the study. But “the inversion of the age pyramid will have profound and negative consequences on the economy and the organization of families, communities, and societies,” he told AFP. However, these projections are not “set in stone”: changes in policies could alter the trajectories of different countries.
China, Japan, Spain, and Italy could lose half of their population.
Demographic trends, including mortality and migration, will vary by region and country, according to researchers. Asia and Europe are home to many of the 23 countries that are expected to see their population reduced by-half; such as Japan (128 to 60 million), Thailand (71 to 35), South Korea (53 to 27), Italy (61 to 31), Spain (46 to 23) or Portugal (11 to 4.5).
China could also lose almost half of its population – potentially 730 million by 2100 compared to 1.4 billion today; due to a decline in the number of people of working age, which will “hamper” its economic growth. The United States, which is set to lose its position as the world’s largest economy in the near future, could again overtake China by the end of the century, according to the study. The researchers estimate, however, that France will increase its population to 67 million, instead of the current 65 million.
Conversely, sub-Saharan Africa could see its population triple from one to three billion. The region would be led in particular by Nigeria; which according to projections would increase from 206 to 790 million inhabitants; becoming in 2100 the second most populous country in the world, behind India but ahead of China.
It will also be necessary to invent “liberal immigration policies”, according to researchers at the IHME. “We believe that later this century, countries in need of migrant workers will have to compete to attract these migrants;” says Murray, “who are expected to come mainly from sub-Saharan Africa and the Arab world.”
Source: LCI
